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     80 Out -- Why are so many wrong?

    General Dart TopicsErik writes "You are playing 501 and it's time to hit that out. You've got 80 left, what do you do? Trip 16, Double 16? Is that your shot? Really? Are you Phil Taylor? Even if you were, what are the odds you'd hit that out? Are you REALLY sure?

    Let's take a look at an 80 out shot on the 16's...and let's assume you ARE Phil Taylor (11 time winner of the World Masters Championship)...

    Phil hits about 30% to 33% triples, so assuming he is looking at 80 out, what would he do?

    To hit a trip 16 double 16 out shot, he needs to shoot the triple first, but he has a 67 to 70 % chance of missing!! WHAT? This is Phil Taylor we are talking about! Holy Cow!

    If I told you there was a way to turn that around would you be interested? How about a 67 to 70% chance you would HIT your first dart? How about the second dart too?

    OK, back to the out: If Phil shoots and he misses the Trip 16 (which is 67-70% likely) he has 64 left. 64 + 16 =80 right? OK, so now in order to take that out he MUST hit a triple or a double BEFORE he can throw again at a double.

    I can almost guarantee he WILL NOT take that chance. He'd rather win he game then take a chance like about you?

    Let's look at it this way: You've got 80 and you been banging away at the 20's all night, so why not hit another one? You have at least a 70% chance of hitting that puppy (at least if you are Phil Taylor but likely many intermediate players have a high chance too -- certainly higher then the Trip 16).

    Now, if you hit that single 20 -- just what you wanted -- then you only need one more (again a 70% chance of getting it) to set you up for the double out....a double tops -- again right where you have thrown all night!

    If odds are important -- and anyone that says they are not is lying, or has never played and tried to get to a Double 16 -- then take the odds better out!

    80 Out is: Single 20, Single 20 Double 20.

    BUT, what if you accidentally hit a Triple 20 with that 1st dart? Easy Peasy Mate, toss in a Double 10 for the finish...

    In fact, if you were to hit a Single 5 you still have a shot (albeit tougher) by going Single Bull Double Bull, or Trip 17, Double 12. In fact the list goes on and on, but starting with a fat single 20 is the way to go.

    So why do so many insist that 80 Out is Trip 16 Double 16? Perhaps they never really looked at the out and the odds of hitting it, or just assume that since some old fella at the pub told 'em that's the way then that's the way.

    Incidentally, I've hit 80 out by going Trip 16, Double 16, but that's not the best way to take that shot when it counts. However, it can be fun when it is less important, or you are feeling very cocky. But if my money were on the line, and I was shooting in a game I must win, I WILL ALWAYS go Single 20, single 20, double 20 -- 80 Out.


    "80 Out -- Why are so many wrong?" | Login/Create an Account | 32 comments | Search Discussion
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    A point to stress here... (Score: 1)
    by Erik ( on Wednesday, May 26 @ 15:41:14 UTC
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    A point to stress here, is that shooting a single to leave you a single, double finish, is easier to do then shooting a triple to leave you a tripple finish. You odds are better if you shoot for the single 20 and again for a single 20 then shooting for one triple 16.

    I've shot a lot of darts and when I calculate my odds of hitting an important triple, I usually come up around 12 to 25% on average. It's not to say that I don't shoot higher triples numbers, I do. In fact last night I shot a game where my triples were better then 33% -- in league play. But even at 40% I have a better chance of hitting TWO singles, especially the 20, then I do hitting ONE triple!

    So again, Single 20, Single 20, Double 20 is a better way to take out 80.


    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by Erik ( on Wednesday, July 07 @ 03:22:28 UTC
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    Watching the Masters (both 2003 and 2004 on DVD) over the past few months I've noticed that at no time did any of the top players ever shoot at T16 D16 for 80 out.

    This I think demonstrates the point I am making in this article. Even the masters, who have the highest likelyhood of shooting 80 out on the 16's, go for the 20's. Perhaps becuase they hit so many trip 20's or perhaps becuase the leave on a single is better -- either way, the very best shoot Trip 20 D10, or Single 20, Single 20, Double 20, so perhaps it really is worth looking at ;)


    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by Tom ( on Wednesday, August 09 @ 06:26:25 UTC
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    If i have 2 darts left i try to go double top double top, if you miss with you first dart, you can still set it up for your next go. I tried it last night, missed, but somtimes to have to be adventurous

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by ChadJohnson on Tuesday, November 13 @ 13:38:49 UTC
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    Phil Taylor would shoot the triple twenty, thats what brought him to the match and what keeps him good, the 16 is not a good % shot, but what do i know

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by stephen on Tuesday, October 30 @ 16:44:53 UTC
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    well also if u hit that first single 16 and wanted to try and get out that throw then i would go for triple 14. Even if i miss the triple and hit the single i can still go for double bull. You see?

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by USUALCHAOS on Sunday, November 11 @ 05:11:59 UTC
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    16 sounds like a good option. But for the people who say you can bust going 20's. What about if you hit a trip 14. this is a number you dont always shoot at is it. Ill go the 20's route and take my chances.

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by Dartlounge on Friday, November 30 @ 15:00:24 UTC
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    I cannot believe that you are generating this many comments about something just as individual as choosing black flights over red flights.
    One thing you CANNOT say is "Why are so many wrong". That just pisses people off and sounds as though you think you are so much smarter than anyone else.
    I believe you once stated somewhere that you like the double top out. If this is correct, it stands to reason that you would opt to throw two fat (30% chance of missing each of them) darts to give yourself one opportunity to end a game. What are the percentages on you hitting that double 20 anyway? I did not see those stats put up in the article.
    How many times have you missed hitting one of those fat 20's, and why on earth would you take two darts to set up an out. Why not use all three to set up the out. I like single 5, single 15, and single 20. Now I have 40 left, and I will just hope my opponent is a lousy dart player and affords me the luxury of playing scared.
    You cannot throw a 9 dart game aiming at singles. You would not have been able to qualify for the first WSOD taking an extra dart to set up an out (14 darts got in I believe), so why lay back!
    All game long you focus on trips, so why relax. First dart straight at the trip 16. Hit it and I end the game 85% of the time that turn.
    If I hit a single 16, depending on where my opponent is, I fire at it again and go for the double 8 out, of I fire at the trip 14. Miss and I still have an out, but the point is, I want to end the game and not let my opponent throw again, so I want two out darts in my hand, not one.
    There is no right or wrong, but the power of the pen can make anyone a beleiver, especially if your readers are unsure of themselves.
    Play to end the game. Don't play timid!

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by JD3 on Saturday, April 12 @ 08:14:26 UTC
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    Erik--- all day long with the 20, 20, D tops. I believe there is NO other way. JD3

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by theDragon on Thursday, April 17 @ 13:49:46 UTC
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    20's are the way to go to allow maximum percentage of taking the out with the three darts in your hand. Other combo's are o.k. to do if you want to, but I believe the crux of this point was what would be the most efficient and reasonable out shot to take. Nothing's wrong if you take it out a different way, but try taking it out that way v.s. the 20 way and you will find the 20's will win for most players in general over the long run.

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by warnock ( on Thursday, June 05 @ 13:20:54 UTC
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    i think the only way to go is 20's because the % age is in favour of the 20 cause you shoot the 90 % of the game why stop shooting for the if you dont have too..

    Why did I write this one? (Score: 1)
    by TheCommandant on Tuesday, November 11 @ 10:26:10 UTC
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    Just a note one why I wrote the article so long ago (and I agree still with it) is that I was told I was doing this wrong and the RIGHT way was to go T16, D16 since that WAS 80 out.

    I disagree and often chuckle to myself when someone holding three darts goes this route becuase inevitably they don't check it out.

    I've also chuckled to myself each time I play those same people, the ones who do that and tell me it is THE ONLY way to shoot 80 out, while I go up, miss the T20, hit another single 20 and check the remaining 40 out to win the leg/set/match.

    The point really, is that they are wrong and T16/D16 is NOT the only way to take out 80 and in fact, many of the worlds top players do not do it that way even with only two darts in hand.

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by jakesy on Sunday, June 27 @ 23:54:27 UTC
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    Two words, muscle memory. In 501 you shoot at T20 all day long. the odds of you hitting a T20 with that second dart and busting 80 are higher than one would think and i have done exactly that more than once. I was told by several qualified mentors you NEVER shoot at a number that can bust your out. If your practicing properly, you should be able to hit a T16 just as easily as a T20. If you feel the need to shoot two fat numbers to set up an out you should probably spend more time on the practice board. Maybe join flight school and work on the accuracy drill.

    Re: 80 Out -- Why are so many wrong? (Score: 1)
    by eldon on Sunday, June 26 @ 09:15:41 UTC
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    eric this is eldon really you would use all three ill go for it in two and if i miss i have one left in my hand to finesh.take a shoot dont risk a lose by being a wimp phil talor 15 time world champ 170 167 161 122 131 outs to win when his appo. was under 40 eric a woss bag

    Re: 80 Out -- The Replies (Score: 1)
    by Jacob on Tuesday, May 22 @ 00:06:49 UTC
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    I agree, 3 darts in hand go the 20's. 2 darts in hand either go for t20+d10, or if i'm in the mood 2, t16+d16.

    Very correct about %'s. ;-) & forget the hater, he's simply jealous he doesn't have a wonderful website like you, or the audience to listen to him barrage you with insults as if he were 7 years old.

    Keep up the good work E, anyone with any sense will listen :D

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