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    Dartplayer Dot Net :: View topic - Your fav double setup when the dough is on the line
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    Your fav double setup when the dough is on the line

     
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    KopRalph11
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    PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:28 pm    Post subject: Your fav double setup when the dough is on the line Reply with quote

    We all have our preference double. I personally like to get in and out on the D20. Yes i know its the same size all the way around, but I do have my preference. I do however vary when I have 2 darts in hand and have to get out. Any odd to make myself even and I invariably will throw the 7/19/3/17 wedge. I can't bare the thought of not looking at an out at all.

    I was asked about it just this last Monday. I had 21 left with 2 darts. I hit the 3 and shot the D9 to go out. The fella I was playing asked me why I had not thrown the 5. A reasonable question by all means. I told him it was to make sure I looked at an out. He asked me why again and to clarify. This time he pointed out that I had not missed a 20 coming down from 301 DIDO. What made me think I would miss a 5.

    Hmm. That really is a fair question. Could this be something I have always done and not really thought about it. I told him that I would hit the 7-17 wedge almost 99% of the time vs I would have a higher chance of dropping into a 20 or 12 going for a 5. Done I thought to myself. He can't argue with that.

    Well I was wrong. He promptly pointed it out that I would have given myself a higher percentage out shot in the D8, and if I had missed and he missed his out on his turn, then I would have returned with D8 D4 D2 natural outs. Crud!! point taken.

    Immediately: I realized that this one was worth a rethink. Not because it was a natural progressive out, or even that the D8 is a higher percentage,because that's variable to the player (I personally like the D10 D5 route) But instead how was I going to figure this one out.

    3 variables the way i see it.
    you are 4 times more likely to hit something 4 times the size (minus the Dubs and Trips)
    Do you have a fav out? and if so at what point does it become favorable to setup?
    And finally what are the chances of the opponent missing an easy out to give you another chance?

    Now I realize the math is close to impossible. With literally oodles of possibilities to be concerned with. So I figure we would stick with bare bones numbers here.

    I am close to to 99% of seeing an out going for the 7-17 wedge. However depending on the out I leave. My game ending % on out will vary. If i hit 17 leaving a D2 left I would say I have about 33% of hitting it. or a mean of 66% of setup to "out" look.

    If I throw a single 5 at 66% hit rate leaving myself with a D8 which for some people may be 50% shot. well my mean would be a staggeringly close 58% .

    Now keep in mind I can't take into consideration a person familiarity with any particular out. But upon further review this one may be worth looking into. If a person was to simply increase single segment hit rate to 80% and still maintained their out hit percentage at 50% well the point of shooting a larger board area becomes mute. Hence why pros always setup their fav out. Now if you throw in the chances of your opponent missing his one dart out. Albeit pretty low, Then wouldn't it be better for you to be looking at a natural out?

    Anyway keep in mind i haven't tested any of this. I do however have a suspicion at my personal level. I might be defaulting to the large wedge a little too quickly.
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    AmericanBadAss
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    PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

    With the 5, you run the risk of busting if you hit a 20. Also, the 12 on the other side will still leave you odd, you've wasted a dart.

    I'll take the percentage of the 7 through 17 slab versus a single number any day. Can't shoot at a double if you don't set it up first.
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    KopRalph11
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    PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

    I guess it goes back to people knowing what they are more likely to hit.
    Its interesting to me because its a combination shot. I would say the majority of players I play long format (7-15 legs) with tend to be pretty good players. Close to, if not all of them would have shot the 5. Conversely, I almost never throw the 1/9/5 if the big wedge is still available to create any double. If pressed I am more likely to throw a 13 with 21 left to leave D4, simply because I can still clean up if I stumble into the 4 or 6.
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    AmericanBadAss
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    PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

    True, the only trouble with 13 is you could really shank into the 18..that's 1 D1 to fix. I'll take my chances on the bottom in that situation most any time.
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    Hatrick3
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    PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

    For me it all depends on how the darts have been flying in a particular match. If I have been hitting what I'm throwing at all game long then I would definately go for the higher % out being the 5 D8 with 21 left. If I had been struggling a little bit then yes it would be the bottom of the board. Like I said though this for me can change from game to game not just match to match all depends on how i feel. I by far am no master at all the high percentage shots but I do know a fair amount of them and will throw for the percentages most of the time, but I try not to let too much thinking get involved in my game because then it just throws my rythm off and for me rythm is far more important.

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    CraigB
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    PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

    What IS this "double" thing I keep hearing about? Razz
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    Hatrick3
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    PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

    CraigB wrote:
    What IS this "double" thing I keep hearing about? Razz

    hahaha Laughing nice one Craig.. when can we meet to play for money..lol
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    Chitown599
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    PostPosted: Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

    Hatrick3 wrote:
    CraigB wrote:
    What IS this "double" thing I keep hearing about? Razz

    hahaha Laughing nice one Craig.. when can we meet to play for money..lol
    Hatrick



    Don't take Craig's bait, lol
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    JohnP
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    PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

    Interesting. Pretty sure I've always gone for s5 instinctively. I'd never go at the bottom of the board because there are too many targets that will bust me. The more I think about it, the more I like s13, only because I tend to hit the lateral singles better than vertical ones, and the d4 is almost the same shot.

    Not saying it's better but might be preferential for me.
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    RP_BILL
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    PostPosted: Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

    Personally, I'll live or die going for the fat 5 to leave D8. I agree, though, that shooting for two odd wedges next to each other is a perfectly legitimate strategy. It's hard to deny that your odds of getting at least one dart at a double significantly increase using that logic.


    Hey CraigB-----> I would have thought you would have gone straight for the double 10.5 in that situation. No?? Laughing Laughing Wink Wink
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    PostPosted: Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

    Guilty as charged! Wink
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