Your opponent is on 312 and...

Discussion in 'Practice, Strategy & Technique' started by Erik, Oct 28, 2014.

  1. Erik

    Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    So you've got one dart and 30 remaining, your opponent is on 312 and you are playing doubles 501. Do you, like me, shoot the 14 to leave 16? or try to take out the 30?

    I was told that if you miss the D15 and leave 15 you have all the time in the world to correct it however I've lost plenty of games trying to fix a 15 or 17 after making that decision (opponent slams in a 140+ and suddenly you're no longer looking at a big leave)....whereas I've won more games than not when I've made the change to a better double.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Showboat00

    Showboat00 Member

    My thought is if you can hit a 14 to leave 16, you should be able to hit a 7 (or perhaps 3) to clean up a 15, so why not take a shot to win the game.
     
  3. Erik

    Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    I understand that thinking but with an opponent a long way from an out (or two very big throws) why not leave a nice D8?
     
  4. Showboat00

    Showboat00 Member

    No doubt that the D8 has a break-down advantage over D15, but its not really any easier to hit. If you hit the single 15, you are really no worse off than what you are proposing - gotta hit a fat single to get back to a double. Furthermore, you are still on a double if your miss at the D15 happens to land in the D2, D10, S2 or S10. Meanwhile, the D8 is not without its hazards: the S8 breaks down nicely, but a S16, D16 and D11 all bust and a S11 leaves a tricky 5.
     
  5. Erik

    Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    I might add that I start 90% of my DI/DO legs on D16 and finish a vast majority there so for me there really is not reason not to shoot the S14 to leave 16. Sure I could miss but that's what you're saying you can correct from on the D15.

    With an opponent 300 points behind I think the odds are more in my favor by utilizing the last dart to his the S14 then they are at the D15. Not that I can't hit it but if I miss and hit the single I'm left with a S7D4 shot to clean it up whereas my percentage shot is the S14 (easier to hit than a D15) and the leave with 3 darts in my hand next round has a very high percentage of being hit. Sure I can hit the S8 but how many times have I done that? A million if once so the clean up is totally on autopilot whereas, single 7 isn't exactly a shot I intentionally shoot for.
     
  6. KopRalph11

    KopRalph11 Administrator Staff Member Site Admin

    Simply put; Its a case of comfort. I would personally go for the D15. Just because I like it. However if you like the D8 I say why not? As Erik says if the pressure gets put on all of a sudden. You are where you are most comfortable. I personally hate the D8 and D16.
     
  7. Hooked

    Hooked New Member

    Whenever too much thinking, self doubting and extra caution occurs BAD THINGS happen.

    The best thing to bring to the Oche is Confidence and One Thought. Mmm .. unless you are aiming at double 3 and a large lead then be prudent and set up or bust on the last dart!
     
  8. Erik

    Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    I think we agree here. For me it's best to leave a good double than to risk leaving a mess you have to clean up. To me, confidence is aided when knowing you are throwing a solid game strategy that uses the outs with the best odds (Fundartmentals called those 'the magic six').

    For me, I'll work to 50, 40, 36, 32, 28, 24, 16 which while not necessarily what others would call a 'magic six' since it's 7 and the bull is not a 'magic' out since it doesn't have a second double shot if you miss but still is arguably one of the doubles a top player should work towards (can't hit big outs without it).

    I'm rambling but outs I will not intentionally work towards are 34, 30, 26, 22.

    One can argue that you should shoot them all, and at times I agree but not when I have a huge lead.
     
  9. Showboat00

    Showboat00 Member

    Somewhat ironically, I think that the better your skill level, the more sense it makes to go for the S14. If you almost never miss a fat single, you will very likely get at least three darts a preferred double. I'd just rather take my game shot at a perfectly good double while I have the chance than risk making a total mess of things by landing in the S9 or S11 (or god forbid a T9) while attempting to hit the S14. At the end of the day, either strategy will work and I don't see a clear advantage for one over the other.
     
  10. CraigB

    CraigB Best looking Craig B in the forum! $:-{P> Staff Member Site Admin

    I avoid going for a S14 whenever possible because I tend to miss low. Even 54 is S18...
     
  11. Tubby

    Tubby New Member

    Similar situation just happened with our team in 501. After 12 darts we are sitting on 102 our opponents on 321. partner throws 1, T17, 9( going for double bull and win).
    When I'm up we are on 41 and they are on 297. Going for the S9 I hit the 14 wire. 2nd dart going for the 11 I hit the 14 wire.
    Sitting on 13 I REALLY debated on busting, but I thought going for the 5 would leave my partner 3 darts at an out. AND if I missed into the 20, 12 or T5 I would bust. I forgot to take into consideration the D5 and of course I hit it. Leaving 3 to my partner.......and of course we lost the game.

    Both of us thought the 5 was the right shot, our team mates felt I should have busted.
     
  12. CraigB

    CraigB Best looking Craig B in the forum! $:-{P> Staff Member Site Admin

    Although I happen to like D15 and would probably shoot for it, another option is to shoot at the 6/10 wire to leave either D12 or D10. This is also the best place to throw with 42 or 46 remaining (especially with two darts left and needing to hit the double).
     

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