80 Out -- Why are so many wrong?

Discussion in 'Articles' started by site_admin, May 26, 2004.

By site_admin on May 26, 2004 at 8:15 AM
  1. site_admin

    site_admin Administrator Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

    You are playing 501 and it's time to hit that out. You've got 80 left, what do you do? Trip 16, Double 16? Is that your shot? Really? Are you Phil Taylor? Even if you were, what are the odds you'd hit that out? Are you REALLY sure?

    Let's take a look at an 80 out shot on the 16's...and let's assume you ARE Phil Taylor (11 time winner of the Ladbrokes.com World Masters Championship)...

    Phil hits about 30% to 33% triples, so assuming he is looking at 80 out, what would he do?

    To hit a trip 16 double 16 out shot, he needs to shoot the triple first, but he has a 67 to 70 % chance of missing!! WHAT? This is Phil Taylor we are talking about! Holy Cow!

    If I told you there was a way to turn that around would you be interested? How about a 67 to 70% chance you would HIT your first dart? How about the second dart too?

    OK, back to the out: If Phil shoots and he misses the Trip 16 (which is 67-70% likely) he has 64 left. 64 + 16 =80 right? OK, so now in order to take that out he MUST hit a triple or a double BEFORE he can throw again at a double.

    I can almost guarantee he WILL NOT take that chance. He'd rather win he game then take a chance like that...how about you?

    Let's look at it this way: You've got 80 and you been banging away at the 20's all night, so why not hit another one? You have at least a 70% chance of hitting that puppy (at least if you are Phil Taylor but likely many intermediate players have a high chance too -- certainly higher then the Trip 16).

    Now, if you hit that single 20 -- just what you wanted -- then you only need one more (again a 70% chance of getting it) to set you up for the double out....a double tops -- again right where you have thrown all night!

    If odds are important -- and anyone that says they are not is lying, or has never played and tried to get to a Double 16 -- then take the odds better out!

    80 Out is: Single 20, Single 20 Double 20.

    BUT, what if you accidentally hit a Triple 20 with that 1st dart? Easy Peasy Mate, toss in a Double 10 for the finish...

    In fact, if you were to hit a Single 5 you still have a shot (albeit tougher) by going Single Bull Double Bull, or Trip 17, Double 12. In fact the list goes on and on, but starting with a fat single 20 is the way to go.

    So why do so many insist that 80 Out is Trip 16 Double 16? Perhaps they never really looked at the out and the odds of hitting it, or just assume that since some old fella at the pub told 'em that's the way then that's the way.

    Incidentally, I've hit 80 out by going Trip 16, Double 16, but that's not the best way to take that shot when it counts. However, it can be fun when it is less important, or you are feeling very cocky. But if my money were on the line, and I was shooting in a game I must win, I WILL ALWAYS go Single 20, single 20, double 20 -- 80 Out.

    Erik
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Articles' started by site_admin, May 26, 2004.

    1. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      A point to stress here, is that shooting a single to leave you a single, double finish, is easier to do then shooting a triple to leave you a tripple finish. You odds are better if you shoot for the single 20 and again for a single 20 then shooting for one triple 16.



      I've shot a lot of darts and when I calculate my odds of hitting an important triple, I usually come up around 12 to 25% on average. It's not to say that I don't shoot higher triples numbers, I do. In fact last night I shot a game where my triples were better then 33% -- in league play. But even at 40% I have a better chance of hitting TWO singles, especially the 20, then I do hitting ONE triple!



      So again, Single 20, Single 20, Double 20 is a better way to take out 80.



      Erik

       
    2. Guest

      Depends on the opponents score and how many darts you have in your hand at the time.
       
    3. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      If you only have two darts then of course that changes things, but I am referring to having three darts.



      As for what your opponent has, I couldn't dissagree more. The fact is, the odds are better going 20,20,D20 with three darts no matter how you cut the cake..or pie as the case may be.



      In the end it's about odds. For example experienced shooters will tell you that D16 is the 'odds' best out. Why? Becuase if you miss the double and hit a single 8 or a single 16 you still have another shot...if you miss any derivitage thereof (ie. D8, D4, D2) the same rings true. The odds are in your favor where they are not say on the D19 -- you hit a single 19 and you now have to correct to get to a double again.



      The same runs true when shooting the 80 out -- if you miss that first dart at the trip 16 you then have to shoot a double or a triple to correct to an out, whereas with a S20, S20, D20 if you hit the triple you have a D10 shot. So you could shoot it at the Trip 20 hoping to hit it or hit the S20 instead -- both ways work well and give you good options -- You shoot for the MISS not the 20% chance of the HIT (if you are pretty good).



      In our league locally there is no one that shoots consistantly better then a 20% trip. Oh sure, some of us can hit close to 30% and the odd game at even maybe 33% or better but that's the odd game -- the exception not the rule...so I my argument is, you shoot for what you are more likely to hit and go out with, rather then not.



      Just my 2p

      Cheers

      Erik

       
    4. Guest

      I'm referring to both score of opponent and number of darts. Even with only 2 darts left, unless the opponent is under 170, the better shot still might be 20-20-d20.
       
    5. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Yes, there we agree! Even with your opponent at a higher score it is the safer shot since it has to do with you. I was thinking you meant if the opponent was at a lower score you would go with the 16s or something.



      Now, to clarify, it is certainly an option to go T16, D16 if you only have two darts in your hands and you opponent is looking at an out, you have to do something, but even in that case I would advocate Trip 20, D10 instead since a single 20 leaves you 60 and you can hit the second shot in the fat 20 easier then if you went for Trip 16 and missed and now must hit a double or triple to get to a one dart out.



      Great comments though! Keep them coming.

      Cheers

      Erik

       
    6. Erik

      Erik Site Owner Staff Member Site Admin Site Moderator

      Watching the Masters (both 2003 and 2004 on DVD) over the past few months I've noticed that at no time did any of the top players ever shoot at T16 D16 for 80 out.



      This I think demonstrates the point I am making in this article. Even the masters, who have the highest likelyhood of shooting 80 out on the 16's, go for the 20's. Perhaps becuase they hit so many trip 20's or perhaps becuase the leave on a single is better -- either way, the very best shoot Trip 20 D10, or Single 20, Single 20, Double 20, so perhaps it really is worth looking at ;)



      Cheers

      Erik

       
    7. Tom

      Tom New Member

      If i have 2 darts left i try to go double top double top, if you miss with you first dart, you can still set it up for your next go. I tried it last night, missed, but somtimes to have to be adventurous
       
    8. Tom

      Tom New Member

      A couple of nights ago Mervin King (at the WDT) checked out on trip16, double16, looked very nice. However he did it a second time, and could't even set himself up on the bull.
       
    9. ctemple

      ctemple New Member

      Yes I agree 20/20/double 20 should be your way, but only issue I have when doing this is, since you have been banging the 20's all game and probarly couple triple 20's with it. After you hit 20 first dart you have a chance of busting with the 2nd dart if you get a triple. But if you go triple 16 and hit a single you can always go 14 double bull and atleast you would have a shot of winning. Also triple 14 still leaves you an out. But again, 20/20 double 20 should be your method, but just pointing fact of possible bust and you are right back were you started.



      Thanks
       
    10. I think the solution here is to simply throw your second dart 1/4" below the D20. If you hit the D20 then you hve D10 left, but if you land just inside the S20 segmant under the D20 then you have a marker dart for your final outshot :)



      Erik
       
    11. lwobaekoms

      lwobaekoms New Member

      The one flaw in your logic is the need to hit a triple before throwing a double when you throw and hit a single 16 on your trip 16 double 16 scenario. Hitting a single 16 leaves 64, and with two darts in your hand, every pro on the planet will throw single 14 double bull for the out shot. Bar none.



      The use of the bull is something all top level players know and use. I myself throw 80 as trip 20 double 10 strictly because if I miss to the left and drop a 5, or heaven forbid trip 5, I still have a makable out, single bull double bull. But I can also see the same shot at the 16. The only mistake that can be made on the 16 is if you hit either an 8, or 7. This leaves a must hit triple before you can take a shot at an out.



      Setting up your next shot is unthinkable in this scenario, because throwing against the top players, chances are you won't see another look at the out. So you must throw at the most makable shot in order to win the game.



      Just my two cents worth.
       
    12. You are of course correct, however let me ask this:

      Is it easier to hit S20, S20, D20 or S16, S14, DB?

      Almost all of the top pros I've watched (or played -- not many there but a few) shoot S20, S20, D20 or T20, D10 (for obvious reasons) or D20, D20 for 80 out.
       
      Last edited by a moderator: Oct 20, 2017
    13. stephen

      stephen New Member

      well also if u hit that first single 16 and wanted to try and get out that throw then i would go for triple 14. Even if i miss the triple and hit the single i can still go for double bull. You see?
       
    14. UsualChaos

      UsualChaos New Member

      16 sounds like a good option. But for the people who say you can bust going 20's. What about if you hit a trip 14. this is a number you dont always shoot at is it. Ill go the 20's route and take my chances.
       
    15. ChadJohnson

      ChadJohnson New Member

      Phil Taylor would shoot the triple twenty, thats what brought him to the match and what keeps him good, the 16 is not a good % shot, but what do i know
       
    16. Dartlounge

      Dartlounge New Member

      Erik

      I cannot believe that you are generating this many comments about something just as individual as choosing black flights over red flights.

      One thing you CANNOT say is "Why are so many wrong". That just pisses people off and sounds as though you think you are so much smarter than anyone else.

      I believe you once stated somewhere that you like the double top out. If this is correct, it stands to reason that you would opt to throw two fat (30% chance of missing each of them) darts to give yourself one opportunity to end a game. What are the percentages on you hitting that double 20 anyway? I did not see those stats put up in the article.

      How many times have you missed hitting one of those fat 20's, and why on earth would you take two darts to set up an out. Why not use all three to set up the out. I like single 5, single 15, and single 20. Now I have 40 left, and I will just hope my opponent is a lousy dart player and affords me the luxury of playing scared.

      You cannot throw a 9 dart game aiming at singles. You would not have been able to qualify for the first WSOD taking an extra dart to set up an out (14 darts got in I believe), so why lay back!

      All game long you focus on trips, so why relax. First dart straight at the trip 16. Hit it and I end the game 85% of the time that turn.

      If I hit a single 16, depending on where my opponent is, I fire at it again and go for the double 8 out, of I fire at the trip 14. Miss and I still have an out, but the point is, I want to end the game and not let my opponent throw again, so I want two out darts in my hand, not one.

      There is no right or wrong, but the power of the pen can make anyone a beleiver, especially if your readers are unsure of themselves.

      Play to end the game. Don't play timid!
       
    17. SonOfSalmon

      SonOfSalmon New Member

      i played on a team called usual chaos we closed that bar the season we won it all this is josh the son of salmon and i always go trip 16 dub 16 then and now beacause i can
       
    18. Actually I would try for the T20 and do -- but the point was that you could more likely hit S20, S20, D20 then S16, S14, DB or T16, D16.



      In truth the odds are better at the 20's -- as for the WSOD I was throwing nice 12-15 dart legs warming up next to Johnny K in the one chance I had but choked when I stepped to the line and it actually counted.



      At the time I could certainly hit the low dart games but wasn't at the level of say Brad W or Johnny K.



      Erik
       
    19. JD3

      JD3 Guest

      Erik--- all day long with the 20, 20, D tops. I believe there is NO other way. JD3
       

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