Discussion in 'Practice, Strategy & Technique' started by Scatman, Feb 6, 2007.
gots to go with the t18.
Just bumping this up... inspired by a thread on Facebook...
I think T18 is best route but for me I’m ba enough so I’ll shoot at t20 and spaz into the t12 or t18 an choose something else from there!
Most people tend to think that going to the T18 first is the best route, but this is only because they think they're going to miss their first dart (giving them that "second chance" of T20, DB). However, a statistical analysis was done that shows you have a much higher chance of taking the out by starting with the T20. People tend to forget that, even if you hit the T18 with your first dart, your second dart must still be another triple! Also, if you do miss that first dart, 108 is the best three-digit out there is in my opinion so you can setup a decent out with your last two darts since there are several very efficient ways to take it out. Just to expand on that, I consider an approach to be efficient when you need four of a specific number before shooting at your out. This allows you to stay focused on one area and not move around the board. In the case of the 108, this means hitting four 20's (D14), four 19's (D16), four 18's (D18) or even four 17's (DB).
I like that! Never thought of it like that. The t18, t14 d16 route always seemed to fit my stroke. Just after posting that reply last night I nearly took it out that way twice in three tries. One inside one outside wire on d16. The other Inuit t18 but missed the t14.
This thread goes back a LONG way.
T20 leaves 68 - Gotta go S18 DB then.
T18 leaves 74 -- T14 D16
Assuming in both cases you MUST hit the out (isn't that always the case?).
What I used to do is go this way: If T20 is the target and you hit S5 that leaves 123 (not a 2 darter), T5 leaves 113 (not a 2 darter), S20 leaves 108 (ditto), S1 leaves 127 (ditto), T1 leaves 125 (ditto), S18 leaves 110 (this is a two dart out), s4 leaves 124 (not a 2 darter), T4 leaves 116 (ditto).
Odds? Take it to the T18 because a miss to the single 18 leaves you a 2 dart finish, the only one available.
However, the odds are, and we've discussed this ad nausium, is that you've been throwing at the T20 all night, week, your life, and have a higher percentage chance to his the T20 than the T18 and the leave is a good one.
One can argue either way.
Actually, that's not why the odds favor the T20 route. Both routes provide you with a shot at the DB if you hit ONE triple (the first triple going for T20 or the second triple if going for the T18 - in both cases it's a T20). However, when going the T18 route, even if you hit the first T18, you STILL need a second triple (or an extra double) somewhere to have an out.
This means that, somehow, hitting TWO triples now has better odds than hitting just one? Doesn't make any sense. Are the odds different between hitting the T20 on your first dart versus hitting the T20 on your second dart coming off a different target? I doubt it.
All of that said, it really goes back to what I'm pretty sure I said earlier in this thread (and others). The REAL time to have been thinking about this was BEFORE this turn. If you're setting up a "must out" for the next turn, go for a target where a single still leaves you a better out and, by "better," I'm talking about something where you will be throwing TWO darts at the same target when needing four "marks." In the case being talked about, leaving 130 would be a good example. For 130, a T20, S20 works, a S20, T20 works, and even a T20, T20 works - and you're shooting at the same target which definitely improves your odds.
I rarely would consider a target based on the thought that I'm going to miss the entire number; that's just putting a negative thought in my head. But a really close-to-the-trip single, while still technically a miss, provides a much higher chance that the next dart will find the target.
"S18 leaves 110 (this is a two dart out)"
This is why I prefer the 18. It's a good chance, at my previous best, that I would not it the T18 but that I WOULD hit the S18....any good player knows they only hit the triples 33% to what? 50%...What's Van Gerwin doing? 67%....unless you are THAT good it's more likely you're going to hit the single...in which case you still have a finish
I think that makes the most sense to me. Especially if you’re good enough to at least put one of 3 in the triple. Plus the 18, 14 route those two are nearly ballistically identical.
Which, as overly detailed above, is EXACTLY the same odds as going for the T20 first. What makes the difference is this: If you DO hit the T18 on your first dart, then you still need another triple to see an out but, if you hit the T20 with your first dart, then either a triple or a single with your second dart leaves a double. For some reason you seem to think you won't hit a first-dart T20, but WILL hit a second-dart T20 after moving from a different target. In either case, if you miss the T20, you don't have an out! Personally, if I have a choice of being left with 90 and one dart or 108 and two darts, I'll take the 108 every time (because then I'm shooting two darts at T19 to set myself up with 32).
Sure, we don't hit every triple we aim for, but almost all of the thinking in this topic has been about what to do after we miss when you should be thinking about hitting the target. That said, if you've been shooting at T18 all day and that's your groove, then go for 'em!
Ok, so if you feel you can put one out of three into the triple, WHY would you ever go for the T18 first then? If you hit it, you still need another triple. Of course, as mentioned into oblivion above, if you miss the first dart, then your triple HAS to be on your second dart AND has to be a T20 (the target you decided not to throw at in the first place). Of course, there's always the final option that your triple occurs on your third dart, in which case you'll have to decide what you want to be left with (36 if you started on 18's and hit S18, S20, or "your choice" if you started on 20's and hit S20 on your first dart - I obviously prefer S19, T19 to leave 32).
I understand the argument (and still think it should be avoided if possible in the prior turn), but going at the T20 first offers better options if you hit it and better options if you don't. Saying the 18's route gives you two chances really isn't true (see explanation in my reply to Erik).
As a side note, I hear a lot of people claim that triples like the 14's are the same as any others. My contention is that you probably hit the triples you shoot at the most far better than those you rarely shoot at so, with 74 left as an example, the odds are much higher of hitting a T18 to leave D10 (something you shoot at a lot in cricket) than hitting a T14 (something you hardly ever shoot at except with 74 left!).
I’ve never played darts at the level of you guys so, I feel like I’m out of my league even in the thread. I did however play golf at a fairly elite level and I liken it to that very often. Golf is another game where “good misses” and “good strategy” are both essential. In my humblest of darting opinions, since we are talking about 3 darts(not 4-6) in hand to prevent us losing on the next turn, the only “good miss strategy” route is shooting t18 first.
Not saying I'm right Just my thinking was to shoot with the miss in mind. Odds are interesting and as pointed out, with a 33% chance of hitting the triple I always felt it was best shoot that way. Meaning I needed a T18 or a S18. Yes 54 leaves 74 but I'm OK with that since 18 leaves 110. It isn't that I can't hit the big outs either, I've hit them all but I always approached every out with the same mentality: have it in mind, know what to do, do it.
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